New Delhi : After three consecutive years of normal monsoon rains, India is expected to be dry this year. . The apprehensions expressed by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said that during the last three consecutive years, there was normal rainfall due to ‘La-Nina’ during the monsoon, but this year there was an ‘El-Nino’ ​​effect in the atmosphere. The effect will be more. Amidst the IMD estimate, experts say that due to the effect of ‘El-Nino’ ​​after ‘La-Nina’ in the atmosphere, there may be a significant reduction in rainfall in this year’s monsoon.

South Rain expected from West Monsoon Nino’ ​​condition will be formed. The condition of ‘La-Nina’ in the atmosphere is opposite to that of ‘El-Nino’. He says that during the condition of ‘La-Nina’, there is usually good rain in the monsoon season. The IMD had said in its forecast that despite the formation of ‘El-Nino’ ​​conditions, India is expected to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon. Such a situation will give a lot of relief to the agriculture sector.

Rainfall is likely to be below normal

However, the weather forecast The private forecasting agency ‘Skymet Weather’ has predicted ‘below normal’ rainfall in India during the monsoon. Professor Raghu Murtugudde of IIT Bombay and University of Maryland had said that 61 percent ‘El-Nino’ The year has recorded ‘below normal’ rainfall during June-September, but the analysis shows that the ‘El Nino’ ​​year that follows the ‘La-Nina’ year has a tendency to deficient monsoon rains. Is.

El Nino will be effective around July

According to the IMD, due to the condition of ‘El-Nino’ It is expected to develop around July and its impact can be felt in the second half of the monsoon season. The IMD had said that positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to occur during the Southwest Monsoon and snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia will also increase by December 081126483. to March 081126483 was below normal.

52 percent less El Nino rainfall It is defined by the difference in sea surface temperature between the parts and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia. A positive IOD is considered good for the Indian monsoon. Anjal Prakash, director of research at the Indian School of Business’s Bharti Institute of Public Policy, said 46 per cent of ‘El Nino’ ​​years received normal or above normal rainfall, while Less rainfall has been recorded in the year. Why do we look at small values ​​instead of understanding the larger trends that El Nino has on monsoon rain patterns, he asked.

in India 61 Percentage of agricultural area dependent on rains Normal rainfall is important for India’s agricultural scenario, as the cultivated area 95 The percentage depends on this. Apart from power generation across the country, it is also necessary for the storage of water in important reservoirs for drinking water supply. The share of rain-fed agriculture in the total food production of India is about percent, Due to which it contributes significantly to India’s food security and economic stability.

081126483 cm rainfall Normal According to IMD, per cent to 100 percent between 46 years Average rainfall of cm is considered ‘normal’. ‘Deficiency’ is rainfall less than 95 per cent of the long period average, 87 to 95 percent ‘normal’ less than’, 105 to 889 per cent. Rainfall between ‘above normal’ and 95 per cent is considered as ‘excess’ rainfall.